基于故障树与灰色模糊理论的城市CNG加气站安全评价

摘要

城市CNG加气站安全状况好坏,直接影响到整个城市天然气汽车的安全运行,为此提出运用故障树分析法与灰色模糊理论对城市CNG加气站进行安全状况分析.通过对站内危险因素的分析,建立了加气站主要系统的故障树,得到引起加气站主要系统失效的70个基本事件,建立加气站安全评价指标体系,利用专家评分法对指标进行评分,利用层次分析法计算各指标层次相对权重.运用灰色关联分析法,计算参评数据序列与标准数据序列的关联系数矩阵,即得出模糊评判矩阵.再由模糊理论得出加气站安全等级,并给出相应的日常安全工作重点.用该方法对常州市CNG加气站进行安全评价,得出安全等级为Ⅱ级,这与加气站实际运行状况相符,说明用该方法对加气站进行安全评价是有效的、可靠的,能够为城市CNG加气站安全管理提供依据.%The security situation of city CNG station decides whether the natural gas vehicle in whole city can get in normal safety operation.So the faulty tree and fuzzy-grey theory method were suggested to analysis safety situation for city CNG station.By analysis on the risk factor of city CNG station, the faulty tree for the main system of CNG station was established, seventy elementary events causing the main system fault of CNG station were obtained, and safety assessment index system was establishedo The score of index was determined by expert assessment method,and assessment index weight was established by analytic hierarchy process method.The grey relational analysis method was used to calculate correlation coefficient matrix between the given data series and the standard data series,which is fuzzy discrimination matrix.The safety degree of the city CNG station was obtained by fuzzy theory,and the corresponding key routine safe working was obtained.All these were used in the safety assessment of city CNG station for Changzhou, and CNG station safety degree about Ⅱ was obtained.The example proved that the method used in safety assessment result of city CNG station is effective and reliable, which provide useful reference for safety management on the city CNG station.