尾矿坝地震液化评价可靠度模型及应用

摘要

In order to consider the randomness and uncertainty of calculation parameters, reliability theory was introduced into seismic liquefaction evaluation for tailings dam. Based on the statistic analysis of test datum, a model for evaluating tailings dam liquefaction probability was developed using the method of First-Order Second-Moment. The relationship between the reliability index with anti-liquefaction factor of safety was explored, and the model was applied to a tailings dam seismic liquefaction evaluation also. The results showed that the physical meaning of the model parameters and statistical indices of the model is specific. Comparing traditionally determinate analysis method , the new model not only can differentiate whether liquefaction takes place or not, but also can present liquefaction probability. Reliability theory in the liquefaction evaluation can better consider the parameter uncertainty, and improve the tailings dam seismic liquefaction evaluation theory, which provides more comprehensive basis for anti-seismic design and seismic safety evaluation of tailings dam based on risk analysis.%为适应计算参数本身具有的随机性和未确知性,将可靠度理论引入尾矿坝地震液化评价中.以测试数据的统计分析结果为基础,应用一次二阶矩法建立尾矿坝地震液化分析可靠度模型,探讨了可靠度指标与抗液化安全系数之间的关系,并将该模型应用到某尾矿坝地震液化分析中.结果表明,新建可靠度模型各参数的物理意义与统计指标明确,相比传统的确定性分析方法,不仅能判断液化的发生与否,还能给出液化发生的概率；可靠度理论在液化分析中能更好地考虑计算参数的变异性,进一步完善了尾矿坝地震液化分析理论,为进行基于风险分析的尾矿坝抗震设计和地震安全评价提供更全面的依据.