基于 AHP 的大庆海外石油钻探项目风险评价指标体系研究

摘要

In the process of contracting overseas oil drilling ( OOD) projects, the importance of risk forewarning management is getting increasingly important day by day .It is necessary to perform risk forewarning management to ensure a smooth implementation of these projects .This paper based on 150 complete and effective questionnaire da-ta, taking Daqing overseas oil drilling project risks as the research object , conducts a theoretical and empirical study on the overseas oil drilling project risk forewarning management by adopting literature review , questionnaire survey, Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method etc .This paper established the risk evaluation indexing system .The results indicate: The overseas oil drilling projects are most influenced by political and economic risks , and social cultural risks the least;economic risks have more influ-ence than political risks;in terms of financial risks , direct risks related to profits are higher than indirect risks;ge-ological conditions risks are higher than technical risks and;in social cultural risks , language difference causes the most risks.Finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations based on the above conclusions .%我国石油企业在承揽海外石油钻探项目的过程中，为确保工程能顺利进行，需要进行风险预警管理。基于150份完整有效的调查问卷数据，以大庆海外石油钻探项目风险管理为研究对象，采用文献查阅法、问卷调查法、德尔菲法专家法、AHP层次分析法等研究方法，对大庆海外石油钻探项目的风险预警管理进行了研究，构建了海外石油钻探项目的风险评价指标体系。研究表明：政治经济风险对海外石油钻探项目影响最大，社会文化风险影响最小；政治经济风险中，经济风险的影响远大于政治风险的影响；财务风险中，与获利相关的直接风险大于间接风险；地质条件工程与技术风险中，地质条件风险大于技术风险；社会文化风险中，与东道国语言差异造成的风险影响最大。最后，提出了相应地对策建议。