老龄海底油气管道弃置决策研究

摘要

Aiming at the lack of theoretical basis for abandon decision-making of aging submarine oil & gas pipeline in China,the structure process of abandon decision-making model for aging submarine pipeline was established.An attribute tree was set up based on the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) by analyzing four dimensions including the engineering factor,structure factor,risk factor,which influence the safety life of aging pipeline,and the cost factor,which influence the decision-making.The fuzzy complementary judgment matrix was established by adopting the fuzzy theory,and the weight of every factor was calculated based on the viewpoints of experts,then the sensitivity analysis of influencing factors was carried out.The scoring criteria of abandon decision-making for aging submarine pipeline were determined,then the valuing of each factor in the attribute tree was quantified,and the cost-benefit ratio was introduced to quantity the cost factor.The comprehensive score was calculated by the logical operation,and the abandon decision was made according to the comprehensive score.The engineering case application showed that,compared with traditional decision-making method,in which the abandon decision is made only by the design life,the abandon decision-making model of aging submarine pipeline can avoid the unicity and reflect the influence of service environment on the pipeline,which is beneficial to improve the economy and safety of pipelines in servicing.%针对我国老龄海底油气管道在弃置决策上缺少理论依据的问题,建立老龄海底油气管道弃置决策模型的结构流程,基于多属性效用理论,从4个维度进行分析,选取影响老龄海底管道安全寿命的工程因素、结构因素、风险因素和影响决策的成本因素,构建属性树;运用模糊理论建立模糊互补判断矩阵,综合专家意见计算各属性权重,并进行影响因素敏感性分析;确定老龄海底管道弃置决策评分准则,对属性树各因素取值进行量化,引入成本效益率量化成本因素;采用逻辑运算计算综合得分,根据综合得分进行弃置决策.工程实例应用表明:相比于传统决策方法仅凭设计寿命作为弃置依据,老龄海底管道弃置决策模型不仅避免了单一性,还能反应服役环境对管道的影响,有利于提高管道服役过程的经济性和安全性.