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煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的系统动力学仿真研究

     

摘要

To deeply discuss the influencing mechanism of vulnerability for safety system in underground coal mine , a system dynamics simulation model of vulnerability for safety system in underground coal mine was established aiming at the complexi -ty and particularity of safety environment in underground coal mine , and the weight coefficient of each influencing factor was determined by using the variation coefficient method .Then the simulation of vulnerability for safety system in underground coal mine was conducted through the literature investigation and the questionnaire survey .The results showed that the equip-ment system had the most significant effect on the exposure degree of safety system , the environment system had the most sig-nificant effect on the sensitivity of safety system , and the employee system and management system had the most significant effect on the fitness of safety system .Therefore , in order to effectively enhance the level of safety system in underground coal mine, the mining enterprises need to improve the equipment system (especially the safety guard products of employee ) to re-duce the exposure degree of safety system , improve the environmental management ( especially the dust and poison control sit-uation) to reduce the sensitivity of safety system , and strengthen the employee system and management system ( especially the employee irregularities and the safety supervision and inspection ) to improve the fitness of safety system .%为了深入探讨煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的影响机理,针对煤矿井下安全环境的复杂性和特殊性,建立了煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的系统动力学仿真模型,采用变异系数法确定各影响因素的权重系数,通过文献调研和问卷调查,完成了煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性仿真.结果表明:设备系统对安全系统暴露度效果最显著;环境系统对安全系统敏感度效果最显著;员工系统和管理系统对安全系统适应度效果最显著.为了有效提升煤矿井下安全系统水平,煤矿企业需要通过改进设备系统(尤其是员工安全保障品)来降低安全系统暴露度,通过完善环境管理(尤其是尘毒治理情况)来降低安全系统敏感度,通过加强员工系统和管理系统(尤其是员工违规操作和安全监督检查)来提升安全系统适应度.

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