基于N-K模型的城市燃气管道失效可能性因素耦合分析

摘要

为分析多因素耦合作用对城市燃气管道失效可能性的影响,构建了基于复杂网络的N-K模型;应用轨迹交叉理论分析管道失效可能性因素的耦合作用机理;基于N-K模型对2011—2014年所发生的1127起城市燃气管道事故进行耦合分析,计算不同耦合方式发生的概率和耦合值.结果表明:多因素耦合过程中,参与耦合的因素越多,管道失效的概率越大,但耦合发生的频率却随耦合因素的增加逐渐减少;环境因素和人为因素参与耦合时,管道失效的概率较大.%To analyze the influence of multi-factor coupling effect on the failure possibility of urban gas pipeline,a N-K model based on complex network was constructed.The coupling effect mechanism about the failure probability factors of pipeline was analyzed by using the trace intersecting theory.The coupling analysis was carried out on 1127 urban gas pipeline accidents from 2011 to 2014 based on the N-K model,and the probabilities and coupling values of different coupling modes were calculated.The results showed that in the multi-factor coupling process,the more the factors involved in the coupling, the greater the probability of pipeline failure,but the frequency of coupling gradually decreased with the increase of coupling factors.When the environmental factors and human factors were involved in the coupling,the probability of pipeline failure was greater.