气候变化对中国陆地植被净第一性生产力影响的初步研究

摘要

On the assumption that the air temperature will increase 1.5℃,precipitation will increase 5% and the distribution of vegetation won't change, an improved energy use efficiency model and 1 km AVHRR-NDVI data are used to estimate the effect of climate change on terrestrial net primary productivity in China. The results show that net primary productivity will increase in most of China, but in south China it will derease slightly. The NPP average increases 6.2% in China totally. The distribution of increased value and relative increased percentage is different. The maximum increased percentage of NPP appeares in Tibet Plateau, but the maximum absolute value of NPP lies in the forest and the mimimum lies in desert region.%在假定气温平均升高1.5℃，降水平均增加5%，地表植被分布未发生变化的情况下，利用改进的光能利用率模型和1992年12个月的1kmAVHRR-NDV1资料及地面气候资料对气候变化对中国陆地植被净第一性生产力(NPP)的影响进行了初步分析。结果表明，除了华南沿海NPP略有下降外，中国大部分地区NPP将有所增加，平均增加6.2%。其中从相对增加量来说，青藏高原NPP的增加幅度最大；而从绝对增加量来说，森林植被的增加量最大，荒漠地区NPP的增加量最小。