改进的动态灰色模型在高铁路基变形预测中的应用

摘要

On the basis of analyzing grey prediction model' s mechanism and existing dynamic prediction model,dynamic metabolism prediction model was gradually improved in terms of stage ratio,conformation of background value and residual error so as to improve prediction accuracy.The precision of improved model was verified through part of HSR bed settlement data.Furthermore,the improved dynamic grey model was applied to various real time prediction and analysis of settlement data in engineering.The results indicate that the prediction with the improved dynamic grey model group,even for the measuring points of large fluctuations,also has certain reference value and high precision.The model is suitable to the real time prediction of HSR bed settlement.%在分析灰色预测理论的建模机理和已有动态预测模型研究成果的基础上,从级比检验、背景构造值及残差等方面分别对动态新陈代谢模型进行了改进以提高预测精度,并通过工程实例的部分数据验证其改进效果,而后将其应用于工程中不同位置测点沉降变形的实时预测与分析.研究结果表明:建立的改进动态灰色新陈代谢预测模型群,精度较高,即使对于波动较大的测点,其预测也具有一定的参考价值,适用于高速铁路路基沉降变形的实时预测.