动态多变量灰色模型在危岩变形预测中的应用

摘要

基于对传统的单点灰色模型的扩展,考虑多个点之间相互影响和关联,采用自适应MGM(1,n)模型,以 Matlab 语言编程,实现对变形体上相互关联的多点变形预测模型的建模,并运用该模型对望霞危岩体变形进行预测。结果表明：自适应 MGM(1,n)模型预测值与实测值吻合较好,比传统 GM(1,1)模型预测的危岩变形趋势效果较好、精度较高,评价结果具有更高的准确性。%A single-point GM (1,1) model was expanded into a multi-point mode1 with consideration of the correlation and interaction between multiple points. The self-adaptive MGM (1,n) model, was used for modeling and prediction of multi-point deformation, coded in Matlab. The model was applied to the prediction of deformation of the Wangxia Rock, which is an unstable rock. The results show that the predicted values agreed with the measured values, and the model had better effects, higher precision, and more accurate results than the traditional GM (1,1)model in predicting the deformation of unstable rocks.