改进灰色模型高铁隧道路基沉降分析与预测

摘要

针对灰色模型在沉降预测中存在一定局限性的问题，在灰色预测的基础上进行马尔科夫预测，利用马尔科夫状态转移矩阵来改进灰色系统模型，以弥补灰色预测对随机波动大的数据序列预测精度低的缺陷。采用某高铁隧道监测数据以及某高铁路基的沉降监测数据进行工程实例分析，得出该模型对于变形曲线波动较大处仍有较好的拟合与预测效果，提高了预测精度。%In view of the certain limitations of the grey model in the settlement prediction,this article made the Markov prediction on the basis of the grey predictation.The Markov state transition Matrix was used to improve the grey system model,and consequently,the defects of low accuracy for the stochastic voluctility data sequence was compensated.The article analyzed engineering examples in a high-speed rail tunnel and subgrade settlement monitoring data,it is concluded that the model still has better fitting and forecast result with strong deformation curve fluctuations,and thus improves the prediction accuracy.