基于大地震风险的川藏铁路线路方案评价模型

摘要

研究目的:川藏铁路途经的道孚、甘孜地区是我国著名的高地震烈度区,区内地震活动强烈,频次高、震级大.因此,开展针对川藏铁路的基于大地震风险分析的线路方案评价研究,对于川藏铁路的选线设计和安全运营具有重要作用.研究结论:(1)提出了铁路大地震风险的定义及计算方法,并通过改进铁路传统的评价方法,建立了大地震风险区铁路线路方案评价模型;(2)利用ALARP准则将风险分为可接受风险、可容忍风险及不可容忍风险三类,通过利用改进的方案评价方法和汶川大地震实震统计数据提出了相应铁路大地震风险的分类标准,并建立了通过方案比选作业从宏观层面实施铁路大地震风险调控的技术体系;(3)最后的实例分析表明:桥隧比例低的线路方案,考虑了大地震风险后的年换算工程-期望运营费增加不多,这应是具有普适性的现象;(4)该研究成果可为川藏铁路及其他高烈度地震区铁路的线路方案研究提供参考.%Research purposes:Daofu area and Ganzi area along the Sichuan-Tibet railway are the most famous area of high seismic intensity in China.Seismic activity in the area is strong,the frequency is high and the magnitude is large too.Therefore,the study on the evaluation of the route scheme based on the large earthquake risk analysis is of great importance to the route selection design and safe operation for the Sichuan-Tibet railway.Research conclusions:(1) The definition of railway large earthquake risk is proposed based on risk analysis theory,and the evaluation model of railway line scheme in large earthquake risk area is established by improving the traditional railway evaluation method.(2) The risk is divided into three categories of acceptable risk,tolerable risk and intolerable risk based on ALARP prinple.By using the improved scheme evaluation method and the real statistics of Wenchuan earthquake,the corresponding railway earthquake risk classification standard is put forward,the railway earthquake risk control technology system is set up by the plan comparison.(3) The final example analysis shows that:the conversion engineering-expected operating expenses increases less after considering the large earthquake risk for the low proportion of bridge and tunnel line scheme,and this should be a universal phenomenon.(4) The research results can provide reference for the railway line scheme research in Sichuan-Tibet railway and other railways in high intensity seismic areas.