多边贸易成本的联立测算方法

摘要

Research Objectives: This paper proposes a new indirect method for measuring multilateral trade costs. Research Methods: Based on a multilateral gravity model, the relation between multilateral trade costs and multilateral trade volume is derived, which is the micro foundation of the simultaneous calculation. Research Findings: Using this method, I find out China's export costs between 1992 and 2015 for 79 trading partners. Through the comparison of the previous results the paper finds that the results of simultaneous measurement method may shows the short-term changes in trade costs and the impact of regional trade cooperation more concretely. Research Innovations: The result by simultaneous calculation method contains the linkage effect of the other country, which is more in line with the real world trade. Research Value: Technically, an attempt has been made in this paper to incorporate multilateral influences into the calculation of trade costs,which enhances the accuracy of trade cost measurement.%研究目标:提出了一种新的测算多边贸易成本的间接方法.研究方法:利用一个包含多边影响的引力模型,得出了多边贸易成本与多边贸易额的关系,以此为基础进行贸易成本的联立测算.研究发现:利用该方法,本文得出了中国对79个贸易伙伴国在1992?2015年的出口贸易成本.通过分析结果并对比前人结果可知,联立测算方法更具体地表现出了贸易成本的短期变化以及区域合作的影响.研究创新:通过联立各区域的贸易引力方程求得的贸易成本综合考虑了区域间的贸易成本联动的情况,得出的区域间多边贸易成本包含了第三方的影响,这也更符合贸易现实.研究价值:在技术上提出了一种将多边影响纳入贸易成本测算的模式,增强了贸易成本测算的准确性.