钢铁产业发展对铁矿石海运需求的影响分析

摘要

The Chinese import volume of iron ore in china is about 65 percent of ocean shipping volumes of iron ore in the world. As the recovery of world economy is slowly and the development speed of Chinese econo- my is falling, the study of the impact of Chinese steel and iron industry development on the Chinese import vol- ume of iron ore and the world ocean - shipping demand of iron ore has very important references for the shipping enterprises. The paper builds the research system based on the industry chain theory. Then, the relationship between the real estate industry, mechanical industry, motor industry and steel and iron industry is shown in the paper. Also, the paper explain the relations of steel - iron industry, the import volumes of iron ore and the world ocean shipping volumes of iron ore. Finally, the statistic model is built to forecast the ocean shipping vol- umes of iron ore based on the statistical data.%中国铁矿石进口量占世界铁矿石海运量比重高达65％。在世界经济复苏缓慢和中国经济发展速度放缓情况下，研究中国钢铁产业的发展对中国的铁矿石进口量和世界铁矿石海运需求的影响，对于航运企业具有重要指导意义。本文从产业链的角度，建立研究框架，阐明了我国房地产业、机械工业、汽车业、船舶业与钢铁业，钢铁业与铁矿石进口以及世界铁矿石海运需求关系，利用统计数据进行定量分析，建立统计模型预测世界铁矿石海运量的发展趋势。