利用青岛市1961年～2012年的逐日气温观测资料，采用线性倾向估计法和Pettitt突变检验方法，分析了青岛市年和四季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温时间序列的变化趋势和突变情况。近52年间，青岛市年平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温分别为12.72℃、16.23℃和10.04℃，且年平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温时间序列呈明显上升趋势，上升速率分别为0.248℃/10a、0.266℃/10a和0.250℃/10a ，上升趋势均通过了0.001显著性水平检验；青岛市四季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温时间序列均呈明显上升趋势，且所有时间序列上升趋势通过了至少0.05显著性水平检验，其中，春季和冬季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温的上升趋势较夏季和秋季更明显。青岛市年、四季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温所有时间序列中出现增大突变，其中，年、春季和冬季突变通过了至少0.01显著性水平检验，突变点主要集中在1985年～1988年，夏季和冬季突变通过了至少0.05显著性水平检验，夏季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温突变点分别为1993年、1989年和1993年，秋季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温突变点则均为分别为1987年、1997年。%In this study ,the variability of annual and seasonal mean temperature ,mean maximum tempera-ture ,and mean minimum temperature in Qingdao during the period 1961 ~ 2012 were examined . The methods of linear regression and Pettitt test were used to identify the presence of trends and change point . The results showed that the averaged annual mean temperature ,mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature were 12.72℃ ,16.23℃ and 10.04℃ ,respectively during the past 52 years .The an-nual mean temperature ,mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature exhibited statistical-ly significant increasing trends during 1961~2012 with the increasing rates of 0.248℃/decade ,0.266℃/decade and 0.250℃/decade ,respectively .On the seasonal time scale ,the mean temperature ,mean maxi-mum temperature and minimum temperature exhibited significant increasing trends at least the significance level of 0.05 during the past 52 years .More significant increasing trends in spring and winter were ob-served compared to summer and autumn seasons .A statistically significant upward shift were detected in the annual mean temperature ,mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature in year 1988 , 1987 and 1988 ,respectively .Also more significant upward shift were detected in the spring and winter mean temperature ,mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature at least the significance level of 0.01 compared to summer and autumn seasons .
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