通过分析知网数据库“学生体质”为篇名的各类文献数量变化规律和同时间段我国学生体质健康的数据及变化规律，发现20世纪80年代为我国学生体质上升的“黄金十年”，但体育学界未能及时总结经验，此阶段“学生体质”类文献数量增速低于“体育”类文献平均增速；由于科研的前瞻性、敏锐性不够以及学界对政府决策的影响力有限，以至于在1995年13、14岁少年机能、耐力指标出现明显下滑之时，学界未能及时警醒并予以应对；20世纪80年代后出生的独生子女的学生体质最先大幅滑坡，但是直到2000年成长为大学生后才被重视，说明中小学体育工作者体育科研参与的必要性和高校体育科研工作者深入基层不足；2002年教育界虽然实施了体育课程改革，但是学生体质滑坡却在加速，体育与健康课程改革没有达到促进学生体质健康的目的；独生子女体质滑坡在1995年初显，2000年加剧，到2010年势头都未能得到遏制，表明独生子女已成为“国民体质拐点”人群，这也拷问计划生育政策变革为何踟蹰不前。%By analyzing the pattern of changing of the number of all sorts of literature whose titles contain “student fitness” and the pattern of changing of the data of Chinese student physical health in the same period, the authors revealed the following findings: the 1980s were the “Golden Decade” for the improvement of Chinese student fit-ness, yet the physical education academic circle failed to summarize experiences in a timely fashion, in this period, the speed of increasing of the number of literature in the “student fitness” category was lower than the average speed of increasing of the number of literature in the “physical education” category; due to inadequate foresight and acuity in scientific research as well as the academic circle’s limited influence on the government’s decision making, the academic circle failed to issue a warning and act accordingly in a timely fashion when the function and endur-ance indexes of teenagers aged 13-14 showed a significant decline significantly in 1995; the fitness of students of the “single child” generation significantly declined first, but the situation was not regarded seriously until they be-came a university student in 2000, which indicates the necessity for elementary and middle school physical educa-tion workers to participate in physical education research and the deficiency of university physical education re-searchers to go deep into the grass roots; although the education circle implemented physical education curriculum reform in 2002, the decline of student fitness accelerated, Physical Education and Health curriculum reform failed to achieve the goal to promote student physical health; the decline of the fitness of “single child” students started to show in 1995, and became comprehensive in 2000, but the trend of declining was not completely contained even in the year 2010, which indicates that “single child” students have become a group of people at the “national fitness in-flection point” since 1982, also questions why birth control policy reform falters.
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