基于AEZ模型的黑龙江省玉米生产潜力变化分析

摘要

【Objective】 The aim was to demonstrate the change trend of maize potential productivity and exploitation space to improve the maize production in Heilongjiang province.【Method】 Based on the climatic materials in 30 years（1980-2009） of Heilongjiang province and AEZ proposed by FAO,the light-temperature potential productivity（LTPP） and climatic potential productivity（CPP） were investigated.【Result】 The LTPP showed an increasing trend and the CPP showed a decreasing trend.The change trends of the exploitation space based on LTPP and CPP over 30 years were both decreasing.The actual yield of maize still has a 66% and 51% gap to the LTPP and CPP respectively.That is to say,the exploitation space of maize yield increasing is largely relative.Through the maize yield exploitation space analysis of typical counties,we find that the exploitation space of the counties located in Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain is lower than the counties located in other areas.【Conclusion】 Water is the main factor restricting the maize yield increase.The maize yield exploitation space in Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain is lower than in other regions.%【目的】分析30年来黑龙江省玉米生产潜力和增产空间的变化趋势,为提高当地玉米的生产水平提供参考。【方法】以黑龙江省1980-2009年共30年的气象资料为基础,采用联合国粮农组织（FAO）农业生态区法（AEZ）计算了黑龙江省玉米的光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,在此基础上计算了玉米的增产空间,并对黑龙江全省和典型县（市）域的增产空间进行了分析。【结果】1980-2009年的30年间,黑龙江省光温生产潜力呈增加趋势,而气候生产潜力则呈减少趋势;相对于光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力上限值而言,黑龙江省玉米的增产潜力空间均表现为减小趋势,但增产空间仍较大,相对于光温生产潜力而言还有66%的增产空间,相对于气候生产潜力也仍有51%的增产空间。对典型县（市）域玉米增产空间的分析表明,位于三江和松嫩平原县（市）域玉米生产潜力的开发程度较大,增产空间相对较小,而其他县（市）域的增产空间则较大。【结论】水分是限制黑龙江省玉米增产的主要因子,除三江和松嫩平原外其他区域的增产空间相对较大。