Taking Wuyuer River Basin as a research area,the temperature data at 4 meteorological stations in 1958—2011,and the precipitation,evaporation and runoff data at 12 hydrological stations in 1985—2006 are selected,this paper uses.M-K mutation test,multivariate linear regression and correlation analysis to study the interaction between hydrological and meteorological elements.The results show that in the past 50 years,the temperature in Wuyuer River Basin has a clear upward trend with an annual change rate of 0.4 ℃·(10 a)—1.From 1985 to 2006,the precipitation showed a significant decrease trend,and very uneven distribution in the year,the precipitation was plenty in summer,and drought in winter.The average annual evaporation was 963.3 mm.The evaporation did not change during 21 years,and no mutation occurred in all seasons.From 1985 to 2006,there was no significant increase or decrease trend, no significant mutation.The distribution of runoff was extremely uneven in the year,and the runoff accounted for more than 60% of the annual flow at flood season.T he annual runoff fluctuated and the overall runoff decreased.It is deduced that in the context of global warming,as the global temperature increasing,the precipitation and runoff in the Wuyuer River Basin will decrease and the evaporation will increase.%以乌裕尔河流域作为研究区,选取流域内4个气象站1958—2011年的气温数据和1985—2006年12个水文站的降水量、蒸发量和径流量数据,运用M-K突变检验、多元线性回归和相关性分析方法研究各水文气象要素之间的相互影响关系.结果表明,近50多年乌裕尔河流域气温上升趋势明显,年际变化率为0.4 ℃·(10 a)—1.1985—2006年,降水量呈显著减小的趋势,年内分配极不均匀,夏季降水充沛,冬季干旱.多年平均蒸发量为963.3 mm,21年蒸发量未发生突变,各个季节也均未发生突变.径流量年内分布极不均匀,汛期径流量占全年径流量60% 以上;多年径流量呈波动性变化,整体径流量呈下降趋势.由此推断,在全球变暖的背景下,随着全球气温升高,乌裕尔河流域降水量和径流量将减小,蒸发量将增大.
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