Hydrologic Effects of Climate and Land Use Change in the Wudinghe River Basin

摘要

Hydrologic cycle is changing under the impacts of climate change and intensifying human activities. Simulation of hydrologic changes is essential for water resources assessment, allocation and integrated management. Soil erosion is seriously high in the Wudinghe River Basin, which is one of the biggest tributaries of the Yellow River in the Loess Plateau. Since the 1950s, large-scale soil conservation treatments in associating with climate change have resulted at significant hydrologic changes in the Wudinghe River Basin. Hydrologic model is one of the most effective tools for hydrologic cycle study. In this study, a distributed hydrologic model was developed to simulate hydrological processes from 1980 to 2000 and hydrologic responses to climate change and land use change in WRB. The results denoted, at Baijiachuan hydrological station, certainty coefficient (R2), relative error of the flood volume (XW) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were around 0.86,-0.03, 0.73 during the calibration period and 0.90,-0.09, 0.74 during the verification period at monthly scale. Tested with different climate and land use scenarios, it was found that streamflow was more sensitive to precipitation and land cover rate than temperature, especially for streamflow in the flood season.