房地产价格波动对城镇居民消费的经济效应

摘要

Real estate price fluctuation affects urban residents’consumption through wealth effect,crowding-out effect and mortgage effect.Wealth effect manifests itself mainly by realized wealth effect, unrealized wealth effect and consumer confidence effect.Crowding-out effect derives from substitution effect, budget constraint,debt service pressure and wealth redistribution effect.Mortgage effect is subject to the value and convenience of the mortgage involved.The empirical analysis suggested that housing price is the Granger reason of residents’ consumption,whose consumer wealth effect is greater than crowding-out effect, but mortgage effect is not significant.An analysis of the financial crisis nodes showed that a more recent period of time leads to a weaker correlation between residents’consumption and real estate price as well as a worse interpretation of housing price for consumption.The economic effect of real estate has gradually weakened,and the government can guide its regulation from intensive instruction control to discrete leading control so as to promote the self-improvement and development of the real estate industry.%房地产价格波动通过财富效应、挤出效应和抵押效应影响城镇居民消费。财富效应的传导机制来源于实现的财富效应、未实现的财富效应和消费者信心效应；挤出效应来源于替代效应、预算约束、偿债压力和财富重新分配效应；抵押效应受制于抵押的价值和便利性。房地产价格是居民消费的格兰杰原因，且房价对居民消费的财富效应大于挤出效应，但抵押效应不显著。以金融危机为节点的分析表明：越是近期，居民消费与房地产价格的正相关性越弱，且房价对消费的解释力度越差。房地产对经济影响正逐步减弱，政府可从密集型指令调控转向间断型引导调控，并推进房地产业的自我完善与发展。