基于时间序列分解技术的电力负荷预测乘积模型

摘要

Power load forecasting is an important guarantee of safe and economic operation in power system, and the key question is the methods and the precision of the prediction. Considering the influence factors,the product model based on the decomposition technique in time series is applied to forecast the power load,and the results show the effectiveness of this method through the actual data of whole social demands of electric power.%电力负荷预测是电力系统安全经济运行的重要保障，其关键是预测方法及预测精度等问题。考虑到电力负荷受到长期趋势、季节变化、周期变动及不规则变动等诸多因素的影响，本文运用时间序列分解方法，建立电力负荷预测的乘积模型，并通过全社会用电量进行预测与检验，结果表明了方法的有效性。