负荷预测的交叉式自适应优选组合预测模型

摘要

提出了一种适用于用电负荷预测的交叉式自适应优选组合预测模型。该模型充分考虑了用电负荷指标的特性和规律，针对用电负荷指标众多、变化各异的情况，建立预测模型库；根据标准离差，优选组合出最优模型。通过在京津唐电网的实用表明，模型具有较强的自适应性和较高的预测精度。%In this paper, the combinatorial forecasting model based on the crossing self-adaptable optimization is proposed for the power load. The characteristics of the various loading indices are fully considered. Because of the variable conditions and too many indices, a database for the forecast models has been set up. Based on the standard deviation method, the optimum model can be selected. With the application in the power net of Beijing-Jin-Tang region, it is indicated that the model presents better self-adaptability and accuracy.