基于贝叶斯网络的复杂装备维修质量评价模型

摘要

针对当前装备维修质量评价忽视维修过程影响因素的问题,将过程评价指标体系作为修后评价指标体系的先验知识,构建了一种基于贝叶斯网络的复杂装备维修质量评价模型.首先,建立了过程评价指标体系和修后评价指标体系,并对各项指标进行了简要分析;然后,建立了维修质量评价的贝叶斯网络模型,通过模糊综合评价方法确定了根节点的先验概率,通过专家经验法确定了子节点的条件概率,并给出了模型的具体求解步骤;最后,通过算例仿真与分析对提出的方法进行了验证.结果表明:该方法能够在一定程度上解决复杂装备的维修质量评价问题,为完善复杂装备的维修质量评价理论提供了借鉴.%Considering the problems that influence factors in repair process are always ignored while conducting the maintenance quality assessment,this paper studies a maintenance quality assessment method for complex equipment based on Bayesian network by taking the procedural indicator system as a prior knowledge of the repaired indicator system.Firstly,the procedural and repaired indicator systems are built and simple analysis of the indexes is given.Secondly,a maintenance quality assess-ment model based on Bayesian network is built,and the prior probability and conditional probability are also confirmed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the expert experience method re-spectively.Finally,simulations and analysis of one instance are conducted to verify the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method can solve the problem of maintenance quality as-sessment for complex electronic equipment to a certain extent,and it can also provide a reference to perfecting the maintenance quality assessment theory.