分离模块航天器不确定性多学科设计优化

摘要

The Uncertainty-based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (UMDO) method was studied for the conceptual design of fractionated modularized cluster spacecraft (fractionated spacecraft) , so as to comprehensively assess and optimize life cycle cost, benefit, system robustness and flexibility under uncertainty. Firstly, the UMDO methodology was introduced, as well as the schematic flowchart of UMDO for the fractionated spacecraft conceptual design. Secondly, the system architecture and assessment criteria of the new concept fractionated spacecraft were explained. The disciplinary models, cost models and benefit models were described, and the uncertainties thereof were modeled with probability theory. Thirdly, a notional earth observatory fractionated spacecraft was used as an example to demonstrate the application of UMDO in the fractionated spacecraft conceptual design. The UMDO problem formulation and UMDO procedure organization were presented in detail. The results show that the mean of the net revenue and its robustness under uncertainty can be greatly improved, which verified the effectiveness of UMDO method for fractionated spacecraft conceptual design.%为了在分离模块航天器研制过程中充分考虑各类不确定性因素的影响,以此对全寿命周期成本、收益以及系统稳健性和灵活性进行综合评价和设计优化,本文对新概念航天器——分离模块航天器概念设计阶段的不确定性多学科设计优化(UMDO)进行了研究.首先,对UMDO方法进行了概述,对分离模块航天器UMDO的主要流程进行了介绍.其次,对分离模块航天器系统的体系结构和评价准则进行了定义,对学科模型、成本模型和收益模型进行了建模,并对其不确定性因素进行了提取和建模.最后以虚拟对地遥感分离模块航天器的概念阶段总体设计为例,对其UMDO数学问题进行了表述,采用UMDO优化过程对优化问题进行了组织与求解.优化结果表明,通过UMDO方法进行设计优化,能够有效提高不确定性因素影响下的设计方案期望净收益及其稳健性,验证了分离模块航天器不确定性多学科设计优化的可行性和有效性.