1960-2010年中国华北东北地区热量资源时空变化

摘要

利用1960-2010年中国华北、东北地区165个气象站日平均气温资料，运用线性倾向估计等方法，对近51 a来≥0℃和≥10℃积温及持续天数和起止日期的时、空分布特征进行分析，了解气候变暖对中国华北、东北地区热量资源分布的影响。结果表明：近51 a来中国华北、东北地区气温增暖趋势明显，气候倾向率达0.32℃/10 a（P＜0.001），且与各项热量资源指标相关显著。随着气候变暖，≥0℃和≥10℃积温及持续天数普遍显著增加，其气候倾向率分别在（30℃·d）/10 a和2 d/10 a以上；2000年以后亚热带北界和暖温带北界在华北、东北地区均出现北移，以亚热带北界移动幅度更大；20世纪90年代以后，一年两熟制种植北界在山西和辽宁两省明显北抬，平均移动幅度超过1.5个纬距。华北、东北地区≥0℃和≥10℃积温及持续天数普遍增加是受起始日期提前和终止日期延后共同影响，≥0℃前者比后者的影响更明显，≥10℃两者作用相当。%Based on the daily average air temperature data at 165 meteorological stations in North and Northeast China from 1960 to 2010,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the above 0 ℃and 10 ℃ steady ac-cumulated temperature,their lasting days,the beginning and ending dates were analyzed using a linear trend esti-mation method in order to find out the impact of climate warming on the distribution of thermal resources.The re-sults show that the air temperature increases continuously in North and Northeast China,with an increasing trend of annual average air temperature of 0.32 ℃per decade (P<0.00 1 ).It is well correlated with the other thermal re-sources indexes.The above 0℃and 10℃steady accumulated temperature and its lasting days increase significant-ly in North and Northeast China with climate warming,and the increasing trends for both are greater than 30 ℃·d per decade and 2 days per decade,respectively.The northern boundaries of subtropical zone and warm temperature zone move northward in North and Northeast China after 2000,especially the former.The northern limit of two-cropping systems moves northward obviously in Shanxi and Liaoning provinces after 1990s,and the mean moved distance exceeds 1 .5 latitudes.The widespread increase of the above 0 ℃and 10 ℃ steady accumulated tempera-ture and their lasting days are influenced by advanced shift of the beginning date and backward shift of the ending date.Furthermore,the influence of the advanced shift of the beginning date is more significant than that of back-ward shift of the ending date for the above 0 ℃accumulated temperature and lasting days,while both have similar influence for the above 10 ℃ accumulated temperature and lasting days.