公众气象服务支付意愿影响因素研究

摘要

Based on survey data in China Meteorological Administration in 2008,the impact factors about willing-ness to pay(WTP)for public meteorological service were analyzed by the methods of a binary Logistic regression, an optimal scaling regression and a classification regression tree(CRT).The results show that the individual factors such as age and education level have significant influence on WTP including whether to pay (WTP1 )and how much to pay(WTP2),while gender has only significant influence on WTP2 but not on WTP1 .The income has sig-nificant influence to WTP.The four factors including concerning degree for weather forecast,accuracy and timeli-ness of prediction,overall satisfaction on meteorological service have significant influence on WTP2 ,while the im-pact is very small.The individual factors and income have greater impact on WTP compared with the psychological factors.%基于中国气象局2008年调查数据，运用二分Logistic回归、最优尺度回归和判定树CRT模型分析公众气象服务支付意愿的影响因素。结果表明：个体因素中年龄与文化程度对公众气象服务支付意愿（包括是否支付与支付多少）有显著影响，而性别因素只对支付多少有显著影响，对是否支付无显著影响；收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿有显著影响；关注程度、天气预报准确性、天气预报及时性和气象服务总体满意度对公众气象服务支付数额多少有显著影响，但影响程度较小；个体因素与收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿影响程度较高，而心理因素影响程度较小。