基于气象因子杭州市燃气负荷预测研究

摘要

Using the daily and hourly data of gas load and simultaneous meteorological observational data in Hangzhou from 2008 to 2013,the variation of gas load in Hangzhou and its relationship with meteorological factors were statistically analyzed.A gas load forecasting model was established based on a SVM (Support Vector Machines) method.The results show that the gas load in Hangzhou from 2008 to 2013 exhibits obvious seasonal variation,with the highest daily mean meteorological load rate in winter and the lowest in summer.Diurnal variation of gas load,with a single peak,is similar among different seasons.The daily meteorological load rate has a negative correlation with daily air temperature in all months except for June and September,with the largest correlation coefficient in December.The daily meteorological load rate has positive values under the conditions of daily average temperature ≤ 13 ℃,and it reaches a maximum value with daily average temperature of about 3 ℃.A positive correlation between daily mean air pressure and daily meteorological load rate is observed from January to April and from October to December.The hourly meteorological load rate correlates negatively to daily air temperature in all seasons except for summer,and the best correlation occurs in autumn.Considering the main meteorological influencing factors,a gas load daily/hourly forecasting model is established based on a SVM regression method.This model has good performance,with a mean error of daily gas load forecasting of 4.36% and a mean error of hourly gas load forecasting of 4.18%.%利用2008-2013年杭州市逐日和逐时燃气负荷资料及同期气象观测资料,统计分析了杭州市燃气负荷的变化及其与气象因子的响应关系,并基于支持向量机(Support Vector Machines,SVM)方法建立了杭州市燃气负荷预测模型.结果表明:2008-2013年杭州市燃气负荷具有较明显的季节变化特征,冬季日平均气象负荷率最高,夏季日平均气象负荷率最低;而各季节燃气负荷总体的日变化规律较相似,基本呈单峰型变化.除6月和9月,其他月份逐日气温与日气象负荷率均呈负相关关系,其中12月逐日气温与日气象负荷率的负相关最显著.当日平均气温≤13 ℃时,日气象负荷率为正值;当日平均气温为3 ℃左右,日气象负荷率达最高值.1-4月和10-12月日平均气压与日气象负荷率均呈显著的正相关关系.除夏季外,其他季节逐时气温与小时气象负荷率呈显著的负相关关系,且秋季相关最显著.考虑主要气象影响因子,采用SVM回归方法构建杭州市燃气负荷逐日和逐时预测模型,模型预测效果较好,逐日燃气负荷预报的平均误差为4.36%,逐时燃气负荷预报的相对误差约为4.18%.