区域气候模拟系统对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的模拟分析

摘要

利用ERA-Interim再分析数据提供侧边界条件,驱动Hadley气候预测与研究中心研发的PRECIS区域气候模拟系统,检验PRECIS对1996-2005年西北太平洋热带气旋活动的模拟能力.经与实况资料的对比结果表明:PRECIS能够有效模拟影响热带气旋活动的热力与动力环境场以及西北太平洋热带气旋生成与路径的分布特征；模拟的热带气旋逐年生成频数与实况相比,相关性显著,生成频数空间分布的高值区与实况对应一致；模拟的路径频数分布与实况相比总体一致.但模拟的中国南海海域生成的热带气旋与实况相比偏多,路径频数集中在南海东北部；模拟热带气旋的北移路径偏少,强度偏弱.%With the driving of lateral boundary condition provided by ERA-Interim reanalysis data,the simulation capability of western north Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) during 1996-2005was examined in the PRECIS regional climate modeling system developed by Met Office Hadley Center.Compared with the observation data,the result indicated that the PRECIS is capable in effectively simulating the TC-associated thermodynamic and dynamic large-scale environmental fields,as well as the distribution features of WNP TCs' genesis and tracks.The simulation of annual genesis number has significant correlation with the observation.The simulated high value area of genesis distribution consistently corresponds to the observation,and the distribution of simulated track frequency has overall consensus to the observation,while the simulated TC genesis in South China Sea is more than the observation,and the simulated track density is over-concentrated in the northeast of South China Sea.The north moving tracks of TCs and the TC intensity are underestimated in simulation compared with the observation.