高考人数见拐点后的高职招生环境考察与预测

摘要

Through system atical investigations on school-age dem ographic trends in China and predictions of the number of 2013-2019 national entrance examination candidates, as well as the specific analysis of the enrollm ent condition in higher vocational colleges in our country, it reveals the potentials problem s of enrollm ent in higher vocational colleges. According to the problem s and the reasons of these problem s, it puts forw ard the coping strategies of higher vocational enrollm ent after infection of the number of college entrance examination. Non-academic degree education is the main approach for relieving the crisis of entrance examination candidates.%　　通过对我国适龄人口变化趋势的系统考察和2013～2019年全国高考人数的预测，以及目前我国高职院校招生情况的具体分析，揭示了高职院校招生的隐含问题；并针对问题和问题产生的原因，提出了高考人数见拐点后的高职招生应对策略：非学历教育是缓解高考生源危机最主要出路。