基于马尔可夫链的新型威胁评估预测方法

摘要

In order to reduce the demand for a large number of historical experience in the air defense operations with the second-hit situation based on Markov chain forecasting model, a state transition matrix derived algorithm is proposed. The special method is designed to obtain the state transition matrix with a small amount of historical data. Then a solution with improved damage matrix is put forward for the possible real damage in the war in order to evaluate the exact battlefield situation. This algorithm can predict the threat evaluation of next round based on the results of previous striking. Simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.%为了减少防空作战中二次打击时基于马尔可夫链的态势预测对大量历史经验的需求问题,采用一种状态转移矩阵推导算法,只需少量的历史数据即可推导出合理的状态转移阵.针对现实中作战双方相互打击可能受到的毁伤情况及其对态势预测的影响,提出一种新型的毁伤矩阵方案.该方案以前一轮的打击结果为前提,预测下一轮打击时的威胁.最后结合相关实例进行仿真分析,并通过试验结果证明了算法的可行性和有效性.