中国城乡居民牛肉需求量预测分析

摘要

Abstract:The study collects the data of beef consumption and income of the city and town residents who are divided into eight income ranks in 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2000 to 2009, and the price data in each province every year. Through establishing and estimating the independently pooled cross section model and the variable-intercept random effects model of panel data, the study obtains the demand function equation of the beef consumption per capita in the city and town family in the 31 provinces, meanwhile, it predicts the total beef consumption amount of 2015 and 2025. The results show that the total amount in 2015 will be up to 9 million, and up to 13.38 million in 2025. With the increase of the average residents' income, the demand for beef will increase dramatically.%运用2000-2009年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)城镇居民(分8个收入阶层)的家庭内牛肉消费量及收入数据,以及各省份各年度的牛肉价格数据,通过建立并估计独立混合横截面模型和变截距随机效应综列数据模型,分别得出31个省(自治区、直辖市)的城镇居民家庭内人均年牛肉需求量的需求函数方程,并对中国2015年和2025年牛肉总消费量进行了预测.结果显示:2015年中国牛肉总消费量将达到900万t,2025年将达到1 338万t,且随着居民人均收入的提高,牛肉需求量将有较大幅度的增长.