舰船研制技术风险综合评估的一种方法

摘要

Current methods of technical risk assessment for armament development are analyzed briefly. A new comprehensive approach of technical risk assessment for naval vessel is studied and presented in order to meet client's requirements of ship risk assessment, which is composed of the total ship's risk structure by ship WBS, the weight distribution of risk structure by AHP, the measure of individual risk by TRL and the overall measure of ship risk. It has been applied in a ship's demonstration.%分析了武器装备研制中现有技术风险评估方法的优缺点,针对舰船装备特点和军方用户对舰船研制技术方案进行技术风险评估的需求,提出了一种新的舰船技术风险综合评估方法,即运用舰船工作分解结构建立全舰的风险体系,利用层次分析法求出体系的权重分布,基于技术成熟度衡量系统设备和技术项目的风险度,最后综合给出全舰的总风险.该方法已经在论证中应用.