为探索云计算采纳和扩散过程的复杂性和动态性，从技术、组织、环境3个层面分析云计算采纳的影响因素，运用系统动力学方法，建立了云计算在产业层次扩散和组织层次采纳的仿真模型。对模型的有效性验证后，分别对不同产业充分性、组织充分性和安全需求满足度条件下的云计算采纳和扩散进行了仿真。研究结果表明：云化充分性越高的行业，云计算扩散速率越快，且创新性和安全满足程度越高的组织，采纳云计算的意愿越强。%To understanding the complex and dynamic of cloud computing diffusion and adoption,the factors which affect cloud computing adoption are analyzed based on TOE theory,and the system dynamics approach is used to build a model of cloud computing diffusion in industry and adoption in organization. After validation, simulation is conducted under the condition of different industry readiness,organizational readiness,and security satisfaction respectively. The results show that the more of industry readiness,the faster the cloud computing dif-fusion rate,and that the more the organization readiness and the higher the secure satisfaction,the stronger the intention to adopt cloud computing.
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