The growing aging population makes public pensions pressure increase. Based on the assumption of endogenous human capital, this paper discusses the influence of human capital on the total fertility rate, elderly dependency ratio and demographic factors such as life expectancy. On this basis, it will further explore the influence of the change of demographic factors on net saving rates, pension replacement rate and the effective retirement age. It will analyse the influence of other macroeconomic and demographic factors on pensions such as effective retirement age,pension replacement rate,savings rate, the total fertility rate, elderly dependency ratio, life expectancy of newborn and the life expectancy of men of 65 years old. Also, it will conduct the empirical analysis with panel data of 1996 - 2015. The research results show that the effective retirement age and total fertility rate rise will reduce age-related pensions pressure, and the higher net rate of substitution will reduce elderly poverty risk,which will further increase the public pension spending pressure.%日益加剧的人口老龄化使公共养老金支出压力增加,基于内生人力资本假设,探讨人力资本对总和生育率、老年抚养比和预期寿命等人口因素的影响,在此基础上进一步探讨上述人口因素变动对储蓄率、养老金净替代率和有效退休年龄等宏观经济因素的影响机制.分析有效退休年龄、养老金净替代率、储蓄率、总和生育率、老年抚养比、新生儿预期寿命和65岁老年人预期寿命等宏观经济和人口因素对养老金支出的影响,并结合我国1996-2015年面板数据加以实证检验.研究结果表明,有效退休年龄和总和生育率上升将减少与年龄有关的养老金支出压力,而较高的净替代率会减轻老年贫困风险,进一步增加公共养老金支出压力.
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