南海声索国家军事能力量化评估研究∗

摘要

The South China Sea is extremely complicated and gets involved in " five states and six directions" . To accurately master the military capacity of claimant countries has the extremely important significance to maintain the rights and interests in South China Sea. [Method/ProcessData of claimant countries from 2010 to 2018 are used as sample collection military capacity inde-xes. Entropy method is used to quantify and evaluate military capacity index weight and discuss military capacity′s critical index changes of claimant countries in the South China Sea and the national military capacity difference with high-frequency conflict countries. [ Result/ConclusionDefense budget is the most important index to affect military capacity development of claimant countries in the South China Sea,while secondary indexes successively contain the land force,navy and air force according to time. High-conflict countries have differ-ent development strategies in the construction of military capacity.%目的 意义 南海问题非常复杂,涉及"五国六方",精确掌握南海声索方军事能力,对维护中国南海权益有十分重要的意义. [方法/过程]采集2010-2018年之间南海声索方军事能力指标,通过熵值权重法量化评估军事能力指标权重,探讨南海声索方军事能力关键指标变化与高冲突频率声索方军事能力差异.[结果/结论]国防预算是影响南海声索方军事能力发展的最重要指标,次级指标依时间转变依序为陆军、海军、空军;高冲突频率南海声索方在军事能力建构上有不同的发展策略.