基于空间计量的新型城镇化动力机制研究

摘要

We build 0-1 weight matrix , geographical distance weights matrix and economic weight matrix to test China's inter-provincial urbanization spatial cluster model and dynamic mechanism by spatial econometrics . We find that China's inter-provincial ur-banization has significant spatial dependence , and the local area urbanization rate is affected by the nearby province'urbanization process significantly ;the inter-provincial urbanization rate shows obvious club convergence , the eastern coastal area is urbanization rate high val-ue gathering area , and the central and western regions are urbanization rate low value zone ;the level of economic development , the sec-ond industry and third industry , education , technological progress , per capita social security and health care expenditure have a significant role in promoting the process of urbanization , but per capita urban fixed asset investment and urban -rural income gap have negative impact urbanization . Finally , we put forward corresponding policy and suggestion to promote China'urbanization development base on the results .%本文使用1995～2011年省级面板数据，构建0－1权重矩阵、地理距离权重矩阵与经济权重矩阵，采用较为前沿的空间计量方法，检验了中国省域城镇化水平的空间集聚模式与动力机制。研究结论显示：中国省域城镇化水平具有显著的空间依赖性，本地区城镇化水平会受到邻近省域城镇化进程的显著影响；省域城镇化水平呈现出明显的俱乐部趋同，东部沿海地区是我国城镇化率的高值集聚区，中西部地区是我国城镇化率的低值集聚区；经济发展水平、第二、三产业、教育水平、技术进步、社会保障与医疗保健支出对城镇化进程有显著的促进作用，但城镇固定资产投资与城乡收入差距对城镇化进程有负面影响作用。最后，在上述结论的基础上对促进中国新型城镇化水平提出了相应政策与建议。