Study on the Pricing Mechanism of Global Solar Photovoltaic Panel Using Econometric Method

摘要

Summary This paper analyzed the pricing mechanism of global solar photovoltaic (PV) system using learning curve as the tool to identify factors contributed to reduction of PV panel cost between 1988 and 2006. We began estimation of global PV learning rate (LR) for 1988-2006 as a single period, and subsequently repeated the whole exercise where the reviewed period is divided into three sub-periods to examine changes in LR as industry/technologies mature. In addition to cumulative production, we also considered three other potential explanatory factors including silicon prices in the estimation. Where applicable, estimation is repeated using both nominal and real prices data for comparison. Our results indicated that (1) LR estimates with cumulative production as the only explanatory factor denoted possible missing explanatory factor in the estimation ; (2) Silicon prices should be considered in estimating LR ; (3) Real prices data is preferred in order to account for inflation ; (4) LR of energy technologies should be examined with consideration to stages of its development. Taking into account the above findings, LR is estimated to be 12% for 1988-1996, dropped to 10.7% for 1997-2001 and finally slowed to 10.2% for 2002-2006. We then utilized this LR estimates to project future module cost reduction pathways based on a range of solar deployment scenarios. Results indicated that module costs in real prices will be dropping from $3.8/Watt in 2006 to $1.68/Watt in 2030 in the most accelerated solar deployment scenario.