基于2000～2013年我国GDP和能源消费总量数据，测算了我国经济增长与碳排放量的变化水平，通过构建脱钩模型来研究二者的脱钩状态，并进一步运用LMDI模型的乘法形式，从经济规模、产业结构、技术进步、能源结构等方面分析了对碳排放量作用的效应大小。结果表明：经济增长与碳排放之间，除了2002～2004年为扩张负脱钩以及2004～2005年和2010～2011年为扩张连结以外，其他年度都为弱脱钩状态；从总体上看，经济规模效应、产业结构效应均为正效应，技术进步效应与能源结构效应则为负，且经济规模效应的作用最为显著。%Based on China's total GDP and energy consumption data from 2000 to 2013 , this paper estimates changes in the level of economic growth and carbon emissions in our country , through building decoupling model to study the decoupling state , and further uses multiplicative LMDI model to research the effect on carbon emissions from economies scale , industry structure , technological progress , en-ergy structure ect . The results show that:the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is expansion negative decoupling in 2002-2004 years , expansion link in 2004-2005 years and 2010-2011 years , which in other years is week decoupling;Overall , the economies scale , industrial structure effects are positive effects , technological innovation and structural effects of energy is negative , and the role of economies of scale is of the most significant .
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