我国二氧化碳排放强度与经济增长的关系-基于协整、线性和非线性格兰杰因果检验

摘要

本文基于协整、线性和非线性Granger因果关系检验探讨了我国1961-2010年间二氧化碳排放强度（CO2）和经济增长（GDP）之间的关系。结果表明，我国二氧化碳排放强度和经济增长有着长期的均衡关系，两者之间的长期关系和因果关系的证据，意味着经济发展会导致环境质量下降，从长期来看，我国经济增长会对的二氧化碳排放强度产生不利影响。此外，线性和非线性Granger因果检验表明，我国二氧化碳排放强度和经济增长之间有长期的单向因果关系，即GDP增长是CO2排放强度的原因。从建议政府制定政策应该考虑目前的环境因素，这有助于让政策制定者和决策者重视保持经济增长的同时遏制碳排放量。%This study is to use cointegration, linear and non-linear Granger causality test to investigate the rela-tionship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissionand economic growth (GDP) in China for the period 1961-2010. Our analysis shows that CO2 emission and GDP are balanced in the long-run. The results suggest that there is evidence that economic development can improve environmental degradation in the long-run. Moreover, the result of linear and non-linear Granger causality test indicates a long-run unidirectional causality running from GDP to CO2 emissions. The study suggests that in the long run, economic growth may have an adverse effect on the CO2 emissions in China. Government should take into account the environment in their current policies, which may be of great importance for policy decision-makers to develop economic policies to preserve economic growth while curbing of carbon emissions.