生物燃料乙醇产业发展的影响因素研究--基于美国月度数据的VAR模型分析

摘要

Taking American biological fuel ethanol industry as an example and selecting the monthly data between January 1982 and December 2014 , this paper constructs multivariate VAR model to analyze the factors affecting the development of biological fuel ethanol in-dustry . The results show that :there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the fuel ethanol production and corn prices , gasoline price , GDP and greenhouse gas emissions ;gasoline prices and GDP have positive impacts on fuel ethanol production , and the lag periods are long , while corn prices and greenhouse gas emissions have negative impacts on fuel ethanol production and the impacts gradually converge to zero in the long term ;policy support has a significant positive influence on fuel ethanol production ;in the long term fuel ethanol production is greatly influenced by gasoline prices and GDP , while the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and corn prices are sm-ller .%本文以相对成熟的美国生物燃料乙醇产业为例，选取1982年1月至2014年12月的月度数据，通过构建多变量VAR模型分析影响生物燃料乙醇产业发展的因素。研究结果表明：燃料乙醇产量与玉米价格、汽油价格、GDP、温室气体排放量之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系；汽油价格和GDP对燃料乙醇产量有正向冲击效应且滞后期长，玉米价格和温室气体排放量对燃料乙醇产量有负向冲击效应并在长期中逐渐收敛为0；政策扶持因素对燃料乙醇产量有显著正向影响；在长期中汽油价格和GDP对燃料乙醇产量的影响较大，而玉米价格和温室气体排放量的影响小。