最优金融结构理论认为 ,处于技术世界前沿的高技术产业的发展将带动金融结构向金融市场化方向发展.本文针对我国金融结构和产业发展的现状 ,建立了包括金融与产业因素两变量的计量经济学模型 ,运用单整、协整与格兰杰方法进行检验并对模型进行估计 ,发现我国高技术产业的发展并没有带动直接金融的发展 ,而是促进了银行信贷的扩张 ,强化了以间接金融作为主导的金融结构;同时 ,高技术产的发展没能发挥促进我国整个产业结构升级的作用.进一步从银行 "搭便车" 行为、我国高科技产业低风险特性以及我国主要资本市场上市门槛过高三方面解释了我国高科技产业与金融结构的关系.目前 ,我国经济正向服务业为主导的产业结构方向转变 ,制造业也将更加科技化、智能化 ,面对这些新情况 ,提出了 "十三五" 期间促进高科技产业和金融市场共同发展的五条政策建议.%According to the optimal financial structure theory , the development of hi-tech industry will drive the financial structure into the direction of financial liberalization . In view of the situation of Chinese financial structure and industrial development , econometric model of two variables with the financial and industrial factor is established applying single whole , co -integration test and Granger method . With the estimation of the model , it is revealed that ascending proportion of high-technology industries in manufacturing industry in Jiangsu did not lead to the development of direct finance , but strengthen the indirect finance . The relationship between the financial structure and hi-tech industry is explained from three aspects of the bank "free -rider" , low risk characteristics and capital market threshold . Nowadays , service industry has been becoming dominant industry , and manufacture has been becoming science and intelligence oriented . Suggestions are raised for development of direct finance and hi-tech industry in the period of 13th five-year planning .
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