我国区域能源消耗与经济增长关系——基于能源输入省与输出省面板数据的实证分析

摘要

After 30 years of economic reform, China's GDP had increased from 3000 billion (RMB) to more than 30 trillion (RMB) in 2008. The energy industry has played an irreplaceable role in China's economic development because energy is an indispensable element of all economic activities. In the process of industrialization and urbanization, China has great demand for energy. However, the dioxide emissions per GDP has been increased. Therefore, the key for sustinable economic growth is whether China can handle the relationships between energy consumption and economic growth. Understanding the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is important because it has policy implications.rnAlthough is a broad research interest on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, most studies did not investigate the relationship from the perspective of energy import and export at the provincial level. Based on data collected from different provinces from 1986 ~ 2008, this study finds that energy-import and energy-export provinces have different Granger causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth. Our findings show that energy-import provinces should strengthen energy cooperation with energy-export regions in order to sustain economic development of their region. In addition, these provinces should implement their energy conservation policy step by step. Energy-export provinces should not only exchange their rich endowment of energy with energy-import regions to gain other factors of production to promote economic development, but also use energy reserve to sustain economy.rnIn summary, China needs to carefully maintain the balance between energy consumption and economic growth in order to sustain economic development. Depends on energy endowments, different provinces should formulate an effective energy and industrial policy to sustain the economic development in their region.%能源消耗与经济增长关系的研究一直是能源经济领域研究的重点,相关研究较多,而以能源输入省与能源输出省为视角的研究却很少.本文基于我国能源输入省和输出省1986-2008的面板数据,运用面板计量经济分析方法对能源输入省和输出省的能源消耗与经济增长关系进行了实证研究,研究发现:长期与短期而言,能源输入省和能源输出省的能源消耗与经济增长关系存在着不同的Granger因果关系.因此,本文在最后提出了各自不同且有针对性的能源和产业政策建议.