空间计量回归分析在旅游季节性研究中的应用

摘要

Tourism seasonality is an important component of the tourism industry imbalance.The spatial homogeneous assumption of traditional measurement method and the ignorance of dependency of regional tourism economic activities,makes geographic space effect unable to be captured by the eco-nomic model which has important influence on the tourism seasonality,which leads to the estimation er-rors and inconsistent test.Therefore,it is necessary to bring into spatial effect in the study of tourism seasonality.This study considers the imbalance in the tourism industry from the space dimension and time dimension,expounds the feasibility of the spatial econometric analysis in these two dimensions, and then puts forward new ideas for the study on the causes of the tourism seasonality and regional con-vergence characteristics so as to make us understand the impact of the regional resources endowment difference and optimize the space allocation of resources.%旅游季节性是旅游产业不平衡性的重要组成部分。传统计量方法的空间均质假定和对区域间旅游空间依赖性的忽视，使得旅游季节性的重要产生原因之一———地理空间效应无法被经济模型所捕获，导致估计和检验上的偏误和不一致。在旅游季节性研究中纳入空间效应是十分必要的。本研究综合考虑旅游产业在空间维度和时间维度两方面的不平衡性，阐述空间计量分析在这两个维度应用的可行性，为分析旅游季节性的产生原因和区域收敛特征，理解区域资源禀赋差异的影响，优化空间资源配置提供新的研究思路。