以中科院土地利用/覆被数据库为数据源,应用土地利用/覆被转移矩阵、双向动态度模型等,利用GIS空间分析技术对1995-2010年江汉平原土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)的时空特征和轨迹进行了研究,结果显示:(1)1995-2010年江汉平原LUCC主要表现为耕地持续地转变为水域和建设用地,水域面积增加主要表现为在原有水域基础上的扩张,建设用地面积增加主要表现为公路建设占用耕地及在原有乡镇基础之上的对外扩张和内部填充；(2)江汉平原东部LUCC动态度明显高于中西部；(3)江汉平原LUCC具有明显的阶段性,总体变化在前期(1995-2000)最显著,水域扩张前期(1995-2000)和中期(2000-2005)均很显著,而建设用地扩张在后期(2005-2010)最为显著.这与江汉平原土地政策和发展政策在时段上基本吻合.%Based on the land use/cover change database of CAS, the land use transition matrix, land use bilateral dynamic degree model, et al,were used to study the spatial-temporal patterns and trajectories of the land use change of Jianghan Plain from 1995 to 2010. The results are as follows: (1) LUCC in the area were mainly characterized by the transition of arable land to water bodies and construction land;the expansion of waters was mainly around the original water bodies;the increasing of construction land was featured by agricultural land loss from road construction, as well as the internal filling and outside sprawl of the former towns. (2) Land use dynamic degree in the eastern region was significantly higher than in central and western regions. (3) The temporal features of LUCC were also rather distinct; the total change rate was highest in the earlier stage (1995 - 2000); the expansion of waters was remarkable at the earlier stage (1995 - 2000) and middle stage(2000 -2005) while expansion of construction land standing out at the latest stage (2005 - 2010), which basically accorded to the land use policies of responding periods.
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