1994—2014年人民币实际有效汇率对中国FDI影响实证分析

摘要

This paper summarizes current situation and characteristics of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) from 1994 to 2014. Then, based on theoretical analysis, the paper conducts an analysis of Foreign Direct Investment by stationary test, co-integration analysis, Granger Causality Test and error correction model. It comes to a conclusion in the last part that the stability of RMB real effective exchange rate is the reason why FDI inflows. In addition, there is a long-term co-integration relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and FDI. However, RMB real effective exchange rate does not have a short-term influence on FDI. At last, the growth of FDI can result in appreciation of RMB exchange rate.%对1994—2014年中国FDI的现状和特征进行归纳和总结,将人民币实际有效汇率对FDI 流入的影响通过平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型进行实证分析. 结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率稳定是吸引FDI的一个重要原因;人民币实际有效汇率与FDI存在长期协整关系,但是人民币实际有效汇率对FDI的短期影响不显著;FDI的增长会导致人民币汇率升值.