外界胁迫作用下塔里木河流域径流变化响应的敏感性

摘要

Quantitative assessment of the climate change and human activity to the run-off alteration is significant for the sustainable management of regional water resources.The time series of run-off from 1960 to 2015 are characterized by three periods:the baseline period (1960-1971),the changing periods Ⅰ (1972-1985) and the changing period Ⅱ (1986-2015) according to the trend analysis.The sensitivity and its spatial distribution of runoff alteration on climate changes and human activities are analyzed based on the water balance and the Budyko hypothesis.The results show that the streamflow alteration is most sensitive to human activities in the Tarim River Basin during the period of 1986-2015.An obvious increase of run-off sensitivity occurred on the precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and catchment parameter from the baseline period to the impact period Ⅱ,and sensitivity indexes are in 1.26,-0.26 and-1.88 in changing period Ⅱ,respectively.Moreover,a regional difference has been observed in the elasticity coefficient and the downstream is higher than the upstream of Tarim River.In the view of the deepening and aggravating loss of run-off due to the climatic change and anthropogenic factors,it is significant for the development and management of regional water resources by taking timely measures according to the sensitivity analysis.%采用Pettitt检验法及累积距平等方法相互验证,合理地将历史长序列划分确定为基准期(1960-1971年)、改变期Ⅰ(1972-1985年)及改变期Ⅱ(1986-2015年).采用基于Budyko假设的Choudhury公式和水量平衡方法,计算分析塔里木河流域径流变化对外界气候变化和人类活动的响应敏感性及其敏感性系数的空间分布.研究表明:(a)径流变化对人类活动的敏感性较高.(b)降水增加对径流增加起促进作用,而潜在蒸发和下垫面参数增加使径流减少;自基准期到改变期Ⅱ,径流变化对降水、潜在蒸散发和下垫面参数的敏感性系数显著增加,在改变期Ⅱ敏感性系数分别为1.26、-0.26、-1.88.(c)敏感性系数空间分布存在差异性,流域中下游敏感性系数较上游敏感性系数高.(d)根据径流变化的敏感性及时采取应对措施对流域水资源开发利用与调配管理具有积极作用.