中国奶业增长与奶业市场集中和空间集聚的实证分析

摘要

This article introduces evolvement and current situation of market concentration and spatial agglomeration of the dairy market in China,and gives an analysis on a mechanism toward variation of structures(market concentration and spatial agglomeration)to the growth of dairy industry.The growth effect is measured by setting Vector Autoregressive Model(VAR).The results indicate that market con-centration and spatial agglomeration have significant growth effect,and the accumulative effect of spa-tial agglomeration is greater than that of the market concentration,with lag 4 on spatial agglomeration and lag 2 on market concentrations.Suggestions are given such as supporting excellent corporations and differentiation by regions,encouraging merger and reorganization of enterprises,conducting market structure optimization,and encouraging regions with advantages to take the lead in the development to release growth potentials in order to get a higher growth and make new breakthroughs under the"new normal"economy of China.%介绍了中国奶业市场集中和空间集聚的演变过程和状况,分析了结构变动(市场集中、空间集聚)对奶业增长的作用机制,并通过建立向量自回归VAR模型,测度了结构变动的增长效应.结果表明,市场集中和空间集聚对奶业具有显著的增长效应,空间集聚的累积效应大于市场集中,滞后4期的空间集聚和滞后2期市场集中的增长效应显著.研究认为,坚持扶优扶强,区域差别化支持原则,支持企业兼并重组,优化市场结构,支持优势区域率先发展,释放增长潜能,才能使中国奶业在新常态下,实现新增长、新突破.