我国工业化、城市化对能源消费强度的动态效应与区域差异--基于动态面板数据模型的系统广义矩（SYS-GMM）分析方法

摘要

Based on China's provincial panel data during 2002-2011, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the dynamic effect and regional difference of the industrialization and urbanization on the energy consumption intensity in China by separating the energy consumption intensity into three levels including low, middle and high and using the dynamic panel data with system GMM estimation. The results show that both increase of the industrialization and urbanization can lead to the promotion of regional energy consumption intensity, but the urbanization's effect on the low energy consumption intensity regions is not significant while the effect on the middle and high energy consumption intensity regions is very significant. In addition, all the factors including the energy consumption last year, the development level of regional economy, energy price and technological innovation and so on have different effects on the energy consumption intensity in China. Meanwhile there exists the rebound effects of the technological innovation in China and the energy price has induced effect on the technological innovation.%基于2002-2012年中国的省际面板数据，将能源消费强度分为低、中和高三个层次，运用动态面板数据模型的系统广义矩（SYS-GMM）分析方法，对工业化、城市化对中国能源消费强度的动态效应与区域差异进行了实证分析。研究结果表明，工业化、城市化水平提高均会导致地区间能源消费强度的增加，但城市化对低能源消费强度区域的影响并不显著，而对高能源消费强度区域的影响却十分明显。此外，上一期的能源消费强度、地区经济发展水平、能源价格和技术创新等均对中国能源消费强度产生不同的影响，而且中国存在技术创新的反弹性效应且能源价格对技术创新有诱致性作用。