需求层次对出口复杂度的影响机制研究

摘要

With mathematical models , this paper firstly analyzed the restriction of demand sophistication on customer preference and manufactures'choice of technology, finding high-income-level country produce and export more sophisticated products, vice versa.Base on the aforementioned theoretical analysis, we further conducted empirical test with System GMM method , whose result strongly supported our theoretical predication. Thus, we could draw conclusion that low -quality export was probably caused by low domestic demand sophistication rather than technology limita-tion, which give full explanation to the failure of government policy and skill -spillover for higher tech production .%通过构建理论模型分析了需求层次对消费偏好和厂商的技术选择的影响，发现高收入国家生产并出口高质量产品，低收入国家生产并出口低质量产品。在此理论分析的基础上，先后利用二阶最小二乘法和利用系统GMM估计法对上述理论作实证分析，结果均表明，需求层次在很大程度上决定了一国出口复杂度。由此可知，发展中国家的低质量出口行为很可能是由国内低层次需求引导的，而非外部技术限制的结果，这就解释了外部鼓励政策和技术外溢为何无法提升出口质量的问题。