环境规制对中国物流业效率影响的实证研究--非线性面板门槛模型

摘要

This paper uses the DEA model to evaluate the efficiency of logistics in China’s 30 provincial units from 2004 to 2012, and by using the nonlinear panel threshold autoregressive model ( PTAR) empirical to research the relation between the environmental regulation and the efficiency of the logistics, when environmental regulation as the threshold variable .The research results show that the environmental regulation has three thresh-old effects on China's efficiency of logistics, when the environmental regulation is less than the first threshold value of 72.6697,that the interval one, it has weak significant role in promoting; When environmental regulation between the first threshold value of 72.6697 and second threshold value of 186.1485, that the interval two, environmental regulation has a significant positive influence on logistics efficiency , and the influence de-gree is much more than the interval one;When environmental regulation between the second threshold value of 186.1485 and third threshold value of 259.3606(the interval three) and the threshold is greater than the third value of 259.3606(the interval four), environmental regulation has in-hibitory effect on efficiency of logistics, the degree of the latter is greater but not notable.%本文首先运用DEA模型测算了我国30个省级单位2004—2012年的物流业效率，并利用非线性面板门槛模型（ PTAR）研究了环境规制对我国物流业效率的影响。研究结果表明：环境规制对我国物流业效率存在三门槛效应，当环境规制（环境污染治理投资）小于第一门槛值72．6697时（区间1），其具有促进作用；当环境规制介于第一门槛值72．6697与第二门槛值186．1485时（区间2），其具有显著正向影响，影响程度相比区间1大幅提升；当环境规制介于第二门槛值186．1485与第三门槛值259．3606（区间3）以及大于第三门槛259．3606时（区间4），环境规制对物流业效率具有抑制作用，后者的结果不显著。