随着城市化进程的深入，城镇居民贫困问题往往具有隐蔽性，若不能正确认识，将会危及经济的可持续发展及社会稳定。通过扩展线性支出系统（ELES 模型）确定中国城镇贫困线标准，并据此估算城镇贫困人口和贫困发生率，发现中国城镇贫困问题日益严重。虽然收入分布曲线右移，城镇居民收入增加，但收入差异明显扩大，加上城镇居民维持基本生活消费的支出逐年增长，城镇贫困人口与贫困发生率逐年上升。同时，由于食品类边际消费倾向较高，交通通信类消费和文教娱乐服务类消费的需求收入弹性均大于1，即消费需求的增长和消费价格指数的同步提高，使得收入的提高幅度不及消费支出上涨幅度，进而导致了城镇贫困问题。%In this paper,we calculated and determined a poverty line in urban China based on the ELES model,and estimated urban poverty population and poverty headcount rate in our country by that urban poverty line.Then we found out that the urban poverty problem is increasingly serious in our country.The consumption expenditure of urban residents for maintain their basic living increased year by year,while the urban poverty population and poverty headcount rate are also rising year by year.The consumer demand growth and the increase of price level,promote the urban residents on necessary consumer spending growth.The imbalance relation between growth in consumer spending and increase in disposable income of urban residents is resulting in urban poverty.
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